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Subscription service has been restarted. Free access to the Evaluation Matrix has not changed. The Evaluation Matrix will be updated periodically.
PREV (the Matrix)
The Commitments of Traders report will likely resume publication in the coming weeks, but hey, it's the government, so there's no guarantees. Return of the diffusion index will be welcome event. It's an absolutely critical tools that helps identify early and late life cycle trades. Trading without DI is similar to planning battle strategy without scouts, drones, and/or spy satellites.
The Fed's transition from hawk to dove, a surprising move, sent stocks, bonds, gold - nearly everything higher. If the Fed is on hold for all of 2019, it's risk on, so the talking heads tells.
The economy is slowing. If it enters contraction, the rally will get more selective. The evolving debt crisis is spreading from the periphery economies to the core - the core being the United States. Timing is everything. US Bonds could rally as the debt crisis spreads. The key is confidence. The number of assets viewed as safe havens will decline as confidence falters. Confidence's trend, defined by CE LTCO in the Matrix, is still positive. The means it will take a month or two to transition its phase to a bear phase (cycle). Watch it close. Trends will violently accelerate and reverse as the transition to distrust become obvious to even the talking heads. The Fed went from hawk to dove because it realizes what the computer has been saying for months, the economy is slowing and global capital flows have changed to risk-off. No Fed policy can easily reverse that in 2019.
BuST & BrST > 0, observations made in the daily, weekly, or monthly time frames, warn investors where upside or downside alignments are pushing against the cycle of time. The computer defines these alignments as Early, Mid, or Late. Late cycle alignments are vulnerable to reversal. A daily BuST or BrST > 2, for example, suggests a growing probability of consolidation ahead even in Early and Mid cycle alignments.
Using the Matrix
The value of the Matrix is far more than a study of price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.
Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Sentiment Model, Intermarket Trends, VIX Model, Economic Activity Composite, Long Term Cycles.
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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.