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PREV (the Matrix)
New alignments: British Pound and Biotech. While alignments are early cycle, they're weaker setups.
A quick word on bitcoin after reports of a mystery trader's large position triggering the rally. After years of trading and studying markets, I will say that people will believe what they want to see. Subscribers, however, are teaching themselves to see what the invisible hand is doing. There's no belief. Bitcoin, a neutral setup at best, needed a weekly alignment reset. Subscribers have been watching Bitcoin's weekly BrST, first climb above 3, then just recently climb above 4 (BrST = 4.08). Standardized Z scores above 3 are extremely rare events. Readings above 4 are unbelievably rare. These warnings, discussed in Bitcoin's Review for many weeks and not recently "discovered" to cover the computer's ass, have been warning bears that some sort of consolidation rally is/was highly likely. Yesterday's 15% rally, a moved embraced by mainstream media as if they're adding value to viewers trading lives, was likely the start of the consolidation. Subscribers will be watching if Bitcoin's weekly alignment enters consolidation or upside alignment either this week or next. Odds favor next week.
Patience as the bitcoin world turns wildly bullish is still needed. Is this bullishness warranted? The Matrix leaves no doubt - NO. Bitcoin's primary trend, aligned down since 9/1/18, is not old. It's BrST = -0.31. So unless downside alignment gives was to consolidation or upside alignment, the path of least resistance is down. How many more months? BrST = 0 says the cycle of time has entered its cyclical mean. Bitcoin's BrST is still negative.
BuST & BrST > 0, observations made in the daily, weekly, or monthly time frames, warn investors where upside or downside alignments are pushing against the cycle of time. The computer defines these alignments as Early, Mid, or Late. Late cycle alignments are vulnerable to reversal. A daily BuST or BrST > 2, for example, suggests a growing probability of consolidation ahead even in Early and Mid cycle alignments.
Using the Matrix
The value of the Matrix is far more than a study of price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.
Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Sentiment Model, Intermarket Trends, VIX Model, Economic Activity Composite, Long Term Cycles.
Subscribers are encouraged to submit comments or questions about the Matrix/Insights.
Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.