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The US economy, like it or not, is largely service based. It's dominated by service producing jobs - 87% of the NFP jobs are service producing; manufacturing jobs make up less than 10% of total US employment (see Breakdown of Nonfarm Payrolls). Bottom line, it's a service producing economy populated by service producing jobs such as retail.
One of the more troubling spots in the Matrix is retail stocks chronic underperformance relative the broader market. Retail stocks have been under performing the broader market for 33 weeks. The bear phase has a BrST = 1.1. While the impulse is past its cyclical mean, it's not extended. Meaning - retail could easily under perform for all of 2019.
Let's frame this concept within US China trade war, which a large chunk of investors believe is winnable. Retail stocks tumbled hard when investors realized that the latest round of tariffs would likely be eaten by retailers. Yet, retailers are one of the largest employers of US citizens. If they have to "eat" the cost of Tariffs, positioned as being paid by the Chinese, how long before retailers lay off workers? Yes, we see headlines of how the US steel industry has been saved, but at what price? US steel workers, a group part of US manufacturing jobs, represent a very small chunk of the labor pool.
Breakdown of Nonfarm Payrolls
Retail Stock Oscillator
Using the Matrix
The value of the Matrix is far more than a study of price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.
Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Sentiment Model, Intermarket Trends, VIX Model, Economic Activity Composite, Long Term Cycles.
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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.