Sunday, March 22, 2020

#Commodities Review - Subscriber Question

Commodities Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Commodities overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber,

I agree with you, the Ag sector looks to to be about to turn higher. Cotton in particular looks ready to explode! The pro index shows an extreme dip in the smart money. What usually happens when you see a pro index chart that looks like that?

Regards, ts


Subscriber Comments

The commodity cycle peaked in 2008-2011. It's been a slow grind lower, but the bulls must remain patient until the longer term cycles (C3 & C4) fall below or approach extreme zones. C4, a long term and slow moving cycle, only dropped below 0% in the middle of 2018. We can only watch, but previous cycle took an additional 1-3 years to reach the extreme zones.

Long Term Commodity Cycles C3 & C4


Cotton's Pro & Public Indices reflect the extreme selling unfolding across the commodity markets. Traders must be careful.



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