Thursday, October 29, 2020

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Economy Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

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All politicians capitalize on the moment. Touting an economic backdrop for short term benefit is exploited by both Democrats and Republicans.

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How is the economy really doing? Consumption, the largest component of US GDP, represents nearly 70% of GDP. It continues to fall from the 2011 high (68.7%). The steady decline from the 2011 high is a concern for a consumption driven economy. China is laughing and the US public (majority) is clueless. Restoration of the GDP to all time highs or better requires consumption. Consumption requires cash handouts or tax cuts for the majority of the population, not just corporation or the wealthy.

Consumption (C) and a % of GDP (GDP = C + I + NetX + G)


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