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Speculative options activity is extremely pessimistic.$QQQ Put activity now among the highest spikes in history – much higher than MAR 2020.— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 24, 2021
Traders have given up on Growth & Tech – but some key names are showing *strength*, after quietly basing for months.
Follow the trend. pic.twitter.com/4UoL8ADmgO
AAII sentiment data goes back to the late 80's. This look back period is short relative to other measures in the Matrix, but it's certainly more robust than options activity. People believe what they want to follow, so refuting other's work is often a waste of time.
The sentiment model's WASo measures multi-dimensional concentration. The latest Sentiment Review discusses the unique setup for subscriber. If you haven't watched it, please do so. Sentiment concentration complete disagrees with the comments above, but we don't have as many followers, so that likely places us in the tin-foil hat wearing crowd on the Internet.
Concentrated optimism doesn't mean stocks have to immediately collapse; they often continue rallying for months. The 2018 spike saw higher highs by 2019, but the entire market became range bound for nearly two years. 2018-2019 don't exactly compare to today, because dividend yield cycles are vastly different. Please watch/read the latest Dividend Cycle Reviews for further discussion of today's risk.
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