Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.
Congress and the White House are kicking around ideas for what kind of tax increases they would like to impose upon us. Here is your periodic reminder that if 12-mo. total of federal receipts gets up above 18% of GDP, we get a recession (and a bear market, of course) every time. pic.twitter.com/ohCEZp0yTt— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) March 15, 2021
Discussions about taxation, revenue collection represent only one facet of economic activity. Economic activity is a dynamic force that’s a function of taxation, spending, confidence, interest rates, plus numerous others. These facts, often described independently yet highly interconnected, are captured by the Economic Activity Composite (EAC). The EAC is located from lines 97 to 108 in the Trends tab of the Matrix. Let’s talk about taxation and it role in defining economic acceleration.
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