Monday, April 12, 2021

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Economy Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments

I cannot make this stuff up. Pointing out extreme trends and linking them against observations of rising social unrest does not make me a conspiracy theorist, fake news generator, or other flavor-of-the-day deplorable. Like it or not, we're all in this together. The sooner we understand the trends and linkages, which could be never with today's leadership, the faster society evolves. Evolution (change) is necessary step to coexistence.

Until then, disagreeable observations will be labeled as conspiracies. An easy one is Modern Monetary Theory (#MMT). MMT will do nothing to reverse the damage taking place in the global economy. If excessive debt (credit) dragged us into this hole, it can't be the solution.

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