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I've said long ago that risk-on assets, such as stocks, crypto, big tech (many of Cathy Woods' plays in the ARK Fund), were vulnerable due to long term cycle readings such as dividend yields and sentiment. I also said that none of the warnings would matter until they matter, which probably led many to say, what's Eric smoking? That response may have seemed like a joke, but actually a serious observation about market tendencies over time. Extreme cyclical valuations, especially in dividends and sentiment, represent a rubber band (risk-on assets) is being stretched too far. Today’s setup draws comparisons to 1987, approaching 1929 and 2000. While it's entirely possibly a speculative bubble similar to 1997-2000 is currently unfolding, it's unlikely to yield superior long term buy-and-hold returns once everything “starts to matter.”
Is everything starting to matter? My response of follow confidence will likely to generated the response what’s he smoking again? Confidence is the key (Line 103 Trends Tab of Matrix). If people start believing something is wrong, and confidence fails, it won't matter how many stimulus checks are passed out.
Please read and watch the Dividend Cycle Review posted and filed on the blog if you haven't done so already. The Long Term Cycle Section of the Matrix tracks the Dividend Cycles 1-4 and Dividend Cycle Means 1-4 and 1-6 (Trends Tab). Please monitor them. The computer posts comments and charts to the cloud daily for subscribers. It's easy to discount or forget them, because the constant warning of danger when everything continues to go up solidifies the complacency encourage by the stupidity of MSM. Subscribers should be anything but complacent over the last several months.
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