Friday, May 7, 2021

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Economy Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments

Why is there a significant labor shortage in the United States? It could be as easy as the government pays more than working. Perhaps, the COVID relief/stimulus was an unintended consequence of kindness, or maybe it’s part of grand design to choke off small businesses, and make a growing section of society even more dependent on big government. Suggesting the latter, a real possibility, doesn't not make me a conspiracy theorist, Republican, Communist, or enemy of the State. It's just an observation.

If you want to continue your life living in a dream world, don’t let this stop you. Our job is to ask questions.

The US Civilian Workforce is almost 3.6 million workers less than it was before the COVID19 shutdowns. Any small business desperate to reopen and survive doesn't need a chart to know that it's difficult to find even entry level workers in 2021. Perhaps politicians will blame speculators.

Civil Labor Force

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