Thursday, May 20, 2021

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Economy Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments

Quoting economic growth in terms of nominal GDP growth rates represents what the economy has done including the effects of inflation and not what the economy is doing. We must study real-time measures of economic growth to gauge the present.

The Economic Activity Composite (EAC) defines how the economy is doing in the present. An economy is either expanding or contracting on the margin (in the present). The US economy is expanding when ITCO and LTCO > 0. ITCO, LTCO, and important subcomponents of the EAC are described in detail in rows 98-108 of the Trends tab of the Matrix.

Economic Activity Composite (EAC)

The US economy is expanding. The expansion is not very strong despite the stimulus.

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