Wednesday, June 30, 2021

#Corn Review $CORN #ZC_F

Corn Review
Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Corn's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments


Good morning. I saw your last post on corn here. I am still riding my long position, but drawdown hurts a little bit. USDA report out here shortly for stocks and acres. What is your take on the market please? Invisible hand has been accumulating right? Or am I reading it wrong on your reports? DI +49% D2 -7. I have been buying into this dip, but fear it may be too early. Please let me know if you get the chance within the hour. Thank you!

Best, Dan

These comments build on the earlier Corn Review. Please read them. Patience is the key word here. Profit-taking likely took place after the daily trend price cycle exceeded 4 standard deviations (sigma). Price has declined rather sharply since then.

What do we know:

(1) Daily is down

(2) Weekly and Monthly are up, but the weekly trend is extended enough BuS and BuST > 1 and nearly 2 that the daily down impulse could 'reset' the weekly trend too into seasonal weakness. Please download the Matrix and look at corn's seasonality. July tends to be difficult for the bulls. This has been the consistent pattern since 1959.

(3) Energy is the bright spot. DI & DI2 are climbing. That defines accumulation, but accumulation doesn't mean a lot until the composite trend (daily, weekly, monthly alignment) returns to Triple Up.

(4) The play is wait for a viable Reset, but it could be awhile. Time is just as important as price, but emotions prevents us from seeing that.

(5) Watch the latest Grain Review Video. It explains everything in better detail.

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