Wednesday, June 30, 2021

#Grains Review #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Ag

Grains Review
Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Grain's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

I have invested and traded markets a long time. My perspective is unique. I programmed the Matrix to follow fractal trends, and study cycles of price, time, and energy. I do not know, or even pretend to know the "fundamentals" of most markets.  The assumption is that the invisible hand knows them better, so I follow it. This is the driving philosophy behind Insights, the Matrix, and Evolution of the Trade.

There are experts out there. A few have the courage to send in their comments. I always encourage that. The only thing I know, is that I will never understand it all.

Foresight brokerage writes,

Thanks for your video updates on the grain markets they have been quite valuable to me (allowing me to keep my head while it sold off so dramatically). See video below.

What we got today was data from the USDA that blew away the consensus of “The Trade” whoever they are.

Planted acres for corn and soybeans were projected by “The Trade” to be up dramatically in today’s USDA’s report and they were wrong…very, very wrong. “The Trade” believed that the higher grains prices in April and May would stimulate more planted acres but US farmers in reality have very little flexibility to add or switch planted acres. Without these increase in acres the US balance sheet for corn and beans has become critically tight, there is no room for any kind of production hiccup (yield loss). The weather year to date has been less than ideal but the US crops are not made or lost in June….they are made or lost in July for corn and August for soybeans. This recent sell-off allowed end users to extend coverage and flushed out some weak length setting us up for a volatile 30-60 days.

The Minneapolis wheat crop (HRS hard Red Spring Wheat) is on the verge of becoming a disaster, extreme heat and lack of moisture over the past 60 days and now projected for the next 2 weeks is likely to finish off this crop (this drought area also encompasses Canadian wheat and canola). After 10 years in the cellar wheat may finally assume leadership in the grains.

Regards




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