Friday, June 4, 2021

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Economy Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments

The gradual economic recovery has zero impact on the civilian labor force. The civilian labor force actually shrunk as the economy 'recovered' in May. It's as if it's more profitable to do something other than work.

The civilian labor force is nearly $3.7M less than it was pre-pandemic, yet the economy is supposed to be better? Yeah, right.

U.S. Civilian Labor Force (CLF) and CLF Maximum less CLF


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