Coffee's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.
From a consultant in Brazil
Talked to producer in Bambui, MG this morning. Coffee region. Neighbor lost 400,000 new coffee seedlings in this freeze. Old trees hit hard too. This coffee event will be felt for years.
Interesting and expected. I've seen this over and over, the Evolution of the Trade (EOT), through energy builds, Flips, and Resets, recognizes what the public won't believe or can't see. The discounting mechanism of markets represents a consciousness that Adam Smith called the invisible hand. We follow the EOT, because the majority is collectively stupid. It watches MSM, because it sells them stories they want rather than need to hear. The EOT represents what they need to know, but the first reaction to it is apprehension. This usually fades after exposure to real investment discipline.
Markets move. The public, a group last to known, trades them as if information they're receiving hasn't been discounted. I'd call them fools, but it's a reflection of education more than intelligence.
Information will continue trickling in, confirming coffee's rally. If coffee, after a period of consolidation, continues to rally, what does the invisible hand know? Experience says, we'll find out, and I stopped trying to play guru by writing future headlines today. Master and follow the EOT, play golf while everyone else chases their tail (gets emotional) through consolidation. Understanding the fractal nature of trends, following alignment, price, time, and energy cycles outpeforms every gurus I've ever encountered.
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