Thursday, July 1, 2021

#DividendYield Cycle Review $SPY #ES_F

Div Yield Cycle
Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Dividend Yield's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The majority doesn't care about extremes until the barn is burning, and the farm is near bankruptcy. Q2 S&P 500 dividends increased from $57.63 to $57.87. The S&P 500 rose from 3972.89 to 4297.50 over the same period. While the 0.4% dividend and 8% price increase from Q1 to Q2 might not seem like a big deal, it only stretches the valuation cycles even further. Thought Q1 sigmas were bad, download the Matrix and look at line 113.

Dividend yield cycles measure the speed of price increases relative to fundamentals across multiple time periods. Dividend Yield Cycle Mean 1-4 starts Q2 at -2.39 (sigma). This is one of the lowest readings over the entire trading history of US Stocks. Nobody is worried because they're either clueless or believe this time is different - the President, Fed, or the WEF will save us.

The Dividend yield cycle mean 1-6 is absolutely worrisome. It tells us when this game of musical chairs ends, it will be devastating. How much time?

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.