Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and "hedonics" to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.
Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s goals change.
Transitory inflation? Inflation is a function of confidence not monetary conditions. I know that comment draws a lot of ire out there, but it is what it is. Most are clueless, while some are laughing. Follow the confidence oscillator in the Matrix (line 103 in the Trends Tab). Inflation is headed higher as long as confidence remains in a bear phase. Gold WILL move when ready.
Commodity Prices Raw Industrials
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