Friday, July 2, 2021

US #Labor Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Labor Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments

There's roughly 3.5 million fewer people in the civilian labor force today than right before COVID-19 hit. We're told everything is normal, but the labor force has shrunk, and clearly not returning to pre-COVID levels. Either robots and automation are taking over (they are), or the real economy has shrunk despite billions of free money.

U.S. Civilian Labor Force (CLF) and CLF Maximum less CLF


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