Wednesday, July 7, 2021

US #TreasuryBonds Review $TLT $IEF

US TBonds Review

Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The market that's supposed to rally only when risk-off (rising bonds and falling stocks prices) overpowers the weak. Today's rally mystifies the public convinced the backdrop remains risk-on, because they refuse to learn how to read the invisible hand. The invisible hand's extremely large bullish energy build (DI &DI2 way above 60% for months) warned anyone reading this blog that the market was primed for at least a powerful countertrend rally, perhaps, even more (see Bond Composite DI below).

Nobody cared until the wolf pack squeezed their short bond positions. The pain is understood by comments such as "only A-holes buy-and-hold bonds", as they lose money to support their opinion.

We play bonds according to the Evolution of the Trade, so frankly, I couldn't care less what the Internet says. The play remains neutral, but fully aware that energy exists to fuel a rally until the primary trend flips up (see Primary Trend below). We'll assess the composite trend when if and when it happens.

If you believe that can't happen, then take a look at the DI. Both DI & DI2 are well above 0% zero. Get a grip on that ego and listen to the market.

Bond Composite DI



Monthly (Primary) Trend


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.