Tuesday, August 31, 2021

#Cotton Review $BAL #TT_F

Cotton Review
Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bag holders of trend transitions.

Cotton's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Cotton's daily up impulse is 49 days old. 49 days generates a time cycle (BuST) score 1.70 (see Line 5 column V in the Matrix). In other words, roughly 90% of all previous impulses were shorter (see Normal Distribution Probabilities).

I have written many times that time is just as important as price. Anyone forgoing partial profits when 90%, 95%, 99% of all previous impulses were shorter is letting greed rather than logic manage their trades. Profit-taking is a personal decision.

These types of decisions are made simultaneously on the daily, weekly, and monthly trends. It's called the composite mean cycle score (x̅). Traders not taking at least partial profits when x̅> 1 is greedy, unaware of simultaneous cycles, or both. Cotton's x̅ is 0.86 (Line 5 Column AZ).

It's all in the Matrix.  Please download and confirm.

Normal Distribution Probabilities


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