Grain's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.
You are correct the USDA estimates are typically terrible and last year was one of the worst years ever. Highlighted in blue are the estimates the USDA made last August for this current crop year, right next to that are the most recent estimate for those same balance sheets.
For soybeans they were off 450% on the carryout and stocks/use ratio, for corn they were off 254%
An number of marketing analyst and farmers use this data for crop marketing decisions and got royally screwed last year. So yes USDA data is largely unreliable and agenda driven.
|Matt Foley: Motivational Speaker|
Decades of reading the footnotes of government economic data releases from the BEA and BLS has given me an appreciation for the word of flexibility. Flexibility allows for horrible forecasts, and 2% annual raises regardless of the outcome. The latter is likely the problem. Make too many flexible forecasts in the private sector, and you'll soon be living in a van down by the river.
Confirmation only reinforces the importance of knowing what the invisible hand is doing. There's an old saying in my book, learn to follow the money, or start shopping for a van and riverfront property.
The Composite Grains DI helps us follow the money. The Evolution of the Trade, the investing discipline of the Matrix, doesn't allow entry, but it's certainly interesting that the Composite Grain DI is so high, and the public is largely nervous and scared ahead of the report.
Composite Grains DI
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