Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bag holders of trend transitions.
Grain's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.
Your recent update is one of my favorite grain market videos (08/07/21 Grains Review) to date. I grew up in the industry as a fundamental trader knowing nothing of the variables that The Matrix follows. Your insight has helped to explain the seemingly contradictory divergence between a neutral to bearish price action and increasingly bullish fundamental global grain balance sheets. You are right, social media blubbers on and on about rainfall, demand and USDA reports when in truth they along with the USDA have no idea what they are talking about.
Keep up the great work.
The computer and Evolution of the Trade (EOT) describe the invisible hand. The invisible hand is a collective conscience that most investors ignore, and even experienced ones 'feel' but do not know how to track. I have been doing this a long time, yet nearly every time I introduce these concepts, they're often met with skepticism, ire, disbelief, confusion, or all of the above.
Traditional TA, a concept routinely debated on the Internet, and frankly a complete waste of time, omits important concepts of cycles and energy (see Tweet below). The inevitable response, "you explain it", doesn't recognize the complexity of explaining fractal trend, cycles, and energy, while limited to the presentation platform of bunny shadows on the wall. In short, too many people want to be entertained rather than educated.
The Matrix is a different voice that does not make sense. Headlines come after the energy builds, cycles, and phases changes in the EOT. Anyone following the Matrix recognizes that after their first year.
I have said this numerous times, there's something wrong in the grains (foodstuffs), and it cannot be explained solely by the weather. Global restriction, lockdowns has the WEF bragging about the benefits of lower global production (see website), but everything has consequences.
Disrupt even a single component in the global supply chain, say semiconductors, yet the world assumes that food production will remain static. Everything is interconnected. I'm no expert, but perhaps analog chip shortages affect robotic controls of say meat processing which, in turn, affects feed consumption which, in turn, shifts demand. The global supply chain is highly specialized. It cannot adapt to the whims of politics.
I'll leave it at that. The computer tracks the invisible hand. We make sure the computer runs and watch the output very close. Knowing what the invisible hand is doing is making you smarter than MSM. MSM is too busy explaining the world through bunny shadows on the wall.
Maybe one day I need to put out an educational video explaining what TA actually is and what it is not and how to apply it versus what some people think it is.— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) August 7, 2021
The misconceptions are staggering.
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