Friday, August 20, 2021

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix

The Matrix, an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize the Evolution of the Trade for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

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Subscriber Comments

The statement that everyone has one foot out the door, implying the setup is bullish for US stocks, is 100% opinion. This individual or group has been presenting this type of short-term analysis to describe stocks for a while. It has worked so far, because the majority has been buying the dip for years.  Let's take a moment to study this opinion in further detail.

The green line (in the sand) around 1 in the chart above look significantly less conclusive when the entire time series is shown (see CBOE Total Pub/Call Ratio). CPC readings just above 1 may look like a firm buy signal since 2020, but its clear it has spent decades above it while stocks have rallied and declined.

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio

Also, why is sentiment still optimistic and near extreme statistical concentration? WASo, a weighted cycle of sentiment, is 0.5. If everyone had their foot out the door, why isn't everyone pessimistic?

Weight Average Sentiment (WASo)

One final point, why are dividend yield cycles, a combination of price and dividend payout cycles, so low. Some of the DY cycles are the lowest on record, and the Dividend Yield Mean 1-6, a measure of the overall cycle, is lower and as low as the 1987 and1929 readings before the big crashes (see Dividend Yield Cycle Mean 1-6).

Dividend Yield Cycle Mean 1-6

The trouble with social media is that it's lucky to sell one point of decent information. Even then, it never describes the complex nature of systems like the economy or stock market.

Please join us by subscribing to the Matrix to follow these and other complex relationships, because someday, the majority, a bunch of fools all following each other, will buy the dip, and the dip will fail.


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