Wednesday, August 18, 2021

#Semis Review $SOXX

Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bag holders of trend transitions.

Semiconductor's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Show me a market in Primary Trend Decline with Evolution of the Trade.

Easy - semiconductors.

Semis monthly trend has been up for 31 months. It's monthly time cycle (BuST) = 1.79. Monthly time cycles rarely go above 2, and are extremely rare above 2.5.

Semis are also displaying extreme price extension. The monthly price cycle (BuS) = 2.1. This tells us that the current rally = 149%, a move that the majority believes is infinite, is already one of the largest in history. Semis' LeadM tab tells us the biggest move is 231%. Remember, if you're buying semis here, you're betting that today's rally will approach, reach, or exceed 231%. This is a low probablity bet for fresh money.

This is why the computer is screaming at us stay away until you're riding the long core position. Be ready for trend reversal in the Evolution of the Trade.

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