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The public has been sold that the Fed is all powerful, so trust us when we say the majority won't be prepared if confidence falters. The Fed has no policy tools to address a rapid deterioration of confidence/trust. The global economy is highly interconnected. Rattling of confidence anywhere within a global economy that's highly leveraged is dangerous. The failure of Evergrande's debt, $18 billion sum being positioned as immaterial on the Internet, matters because everything is interconnected. If this or some other events triggers a chain reaction that shifts confidence from risk-on to risk-off, the game has changed.
The real ticking time bomb is Deutsche Bank, and if you believe Evergrande's and other property managers can't possibly infect it, then the 2x4 to the head teaching moment is inevitable. Deutsche Bank's lending book is so vast and highly leveraged, it wouldn't take much to upset the delicate balance that keeps it solvent. If it happens, perhaps the ECB will stop preaching about climate and social change long enough to expose its ignorance and lack of policy options.
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