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Let the majority (Internet) debate the impact of Evergrande's financial trouble. The only certainty, is that they'll get it wrong. Evergrande is no small operation. It owns roughly $300 billion of debt on its books, and an unknown amount off them. At best, a debt restructuring is coming, at worse a default that the Chinese government will have to cover despite all its claims it won't.
Evergrande's default will not be contained to China. It's estimated that roughly $19 billion in high yield or "junk" bonds are held by foreign investors. How many of these bonds are held by Deutsche Bank, or its customers? Deutsche Bank, a high leveraged entity, would be highly sensitive to any contagion. Many on the Internet have suggested that $19 billion is too small to matter, but let's watch the intermarket flows instead. Two important ones have recently transitioned from risk-on to risk-off.
Listen to the invisible hand, and ignore the internet. Risk-on/risk off intermarket flows have been discussed in the latest Quality Spread Review and are found in Line 79-84 of the Trends Tab of the Matrix.
Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.