Tuesday, September 14, 2021

#USStocks Review #ES_F $SPY

US Stocks Review
Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bag holders of trend transitions.

The global economy and stocks began behaving strangely in late summer of 2019. Repo rates spiked unexpectedly. Few acknowledged it. Anyone looking for a return to "normal" market by fundamentals will likely be disappointed in the coming years.

Stocks crashed in early 2020. Relative performance within the stock market suggests a reallocation of resources away from old to new economic plays. The old norm of "Made in USA" is not coming back. Manufacturing, design, and information collection will be borderless. Citizens will struggle to maintain their liberties and rights without oversight and intervention under this economic backdrop.

Rising stocks as the global and certain market groups decline is a real possibility that has been discussed for years. The stock market's distortion of reality is being attributed to the Federal Reserve. The Fed, contrary to popular opinion, is not that powerful. It cannot control the world's capital flows. The invisible hand, the true driver of market and trends, is redefining the world as the core economy passes from North American to Asia.

Subscriber Comments

Invisible hand is always talking.  Sometimes the message is loud and clear.  Other times, it's subtle.

Subscribers should be following the rules of Timing A Correction. The US stock market is in serious trouble when the VIX model turns bearish.

Experience teaches us to watch for any change. I'm seeing a few subtle ones right now.

Weekly reversals for the US stock indices are fairly stable. They do not change much over time. This observation can be applied to nearly all markets in the Matrix. New reversals often formed ahead of at least short term tops and bottoms.

Added note

Dividend Yield Cycles are extremely low. Long term cycle matter, but the majority will ignore them until the pain becomes too great to remain clueless. Please read any Dividend Cycle Review for further discussion. If you have any questions, let us know.

Long Term Dividend Yield Cycles 1-6 Mean (Line 113 Trends Tab of Matrix)

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