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The US stock market continues to shake and shutter. I find it 'dangerous' that many of the Internet gurus are advocating blindly buying the dip based on timing models that rarely look past 2000. Rising volatility tends to be warning that participants are confused, but it's being dismissed as simple 'trading noise' within the secular bull market. There's an old saying, when in doubt, sit out. Please keep an eye on Timing A Correction/Crash Section in the Trends Tab. The VIX Model or Composite Equity DI are highlighted yellow. If either are checked, the balance of power immediately shifts to the bears. For now, the checklist, a cumulative percentage of the bearish trends, has ticked down to 40%. The change in the calendar from September to October helped.
The Long Term Season Cycles provide a more detail perspective of seasonality (Line 133 of the Trends Tab of the Matrix). The trend of US stocks tends to shift from October to November. Please download it and study the transition from YR1 to YR2 of the election cycle.
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