Monday, October 4, 2021

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

EAC Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and "hedonics" to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data-driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments



Ignore the forecasts. The invisible hand is better at anticipating future economic activity than the Fed or any economist. At best, they're guessing with other people's money. The invisible hand follows the money.



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