Monday, October 11, 2021

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

EAC Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and "hedonics" to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data-driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.



Subscriber Comments

Our perspective is as apolitical as possible. Freedom and choice for EVERY citizen regardless of creed, color, gender, height, weight, and sense of humor is not a political debate. If it is, we're already in deep trouble. With that said, if these sick-outs and/or strikes spread, the public is not ready for what happens next to the US and global economy.

Watch the Economic Activity Composite (EAC) closely. The EAC's direction in terms of ITCO and LTCO is not opinion. They're either positive or negative. If they turn negative, usually ITCO first, more stimulus is coming. It will also decrease the likelihood that the Fed will taper in November.

Economic Activity Composite ( Line 98 Trends Tab of Matrix)


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