Thursday, November 25, 2021

#Cocoa Review $NIB #CC_F

Cocoa Review
Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to long-term trends, it does not define them. The focus on short-term noise rather than trends, a source of confusion for the majority of investors, leads to the creation of bag holders at major trend transitions.

Cocoa's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the Matrix for subscribers.


Subscriber Comments

Cocoa NIB


Cocoa has been a "patience" play since the primary trend attempted to Flip on 10/01/21. Today's decline could trigger the long awaited, highly coveted POWERFUL accumulation by the invisible hand (read more below). Accumulation, defined by rising DIs and falling prices, is taking place in cocoa right now.

Cocoa's bullish energy build, ahead of the October primary trend Flip, was statistically concentrated, i.e. large enough to warrant a close inspection (see Cocoa's Bullish Energy Build). The blue arrows define two, consecutive concentrated bullish energy builds since September 2021.  Why hasn't cocoa responded?  Power behind the energy build.

Cocoa's Bullish Energy Build


Powerful accumulations, setups measured by participation and rising uncertainty, are not as common as concentrated bullish and bearish setups. Powerful bullish energy builds, those that drive durable primary trend flips are measure in terms of years and decades.  Notice how the recent concentrated highlights (marked by the blue arrows) disappear when the computer studies them relative to participation and uncertainty (see Cocoa's Powerful Bullish Energy Build & Cocoa's Powerful Bullish Energy Build 2); this is why cocoa's primary trend breakout failed.  The two energy builds lacked power.

I do not include these setups in the traditional Matrix due to the complexity of the calculation and rarity of signals.

Cocoa's Powerful Bullish Energy Build


Cocoa's Powerful Bullish Energy Build 2


I am a product of Main Street, not Wall Street. The Cocoa Report 10/26/21 represents my attempt to introduce the skill of patience to the public. This skill requires recognizing powerful accumulations.  I have created 8 Reports thus far.

Investment discipline on the Internet, and this is not meant as an insult, can be summed up as a dog chasing its tail. The vast majority of time, the master trader waits patiently for the right setup. This could be weeks, months, or even years if focused on a single market. Patience is not complacency. It's understanding of the invisible hand.



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