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Retail sales are jumping above expectations, and the Internet is once again grappling and selling narrative about the concept of nominal and real growth rates. Does the growth in retail sales reflect rising demand, or rising prices? If you're using this argument to time stocks, you'll likely be disappointed. Stocks represent an inflation hedge, especially during bear phases in confidence and when capital is fleeing from the public sector.
Retail sales relative performance against the S&P500 has returned to a bull phase (see line 79 of the Trends Tab of the Matrix). Do not impose your own opinion about what is or what should be taking place. The stock market rarely crashes or corrects during bull phases of spending.
Follow the Timing A Correction/Crash (TAC) Section of the Matrix. It 'times' trouble better than opinion. The correction percentage remains at 40%, but the Trend Correlation (Disconnects) have expanded to 2 out 4. This means the public (majority) is buying stocks, while the invisible hand is hedging and getting defensive at least short-term.
Trend Correlations (Decouplings) - Line 62 and 63 Trends Tab of Matrix
Again the Matrix doesn't sell narratives. Humans do that. Rising decoupling within the trend correlations should be troubling for the bulls. This easily could expand to 4 out of 4 by the end of the year. Watch it, and be advised to ignore the majority.
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