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The Timing A Correction/Crash section of the Matrix shows decoupling in the term structure of the VIX now. The new decoupling, a sign that the US stock market is falling out of gear, suggests risks behind the trend are expanding.
The setup, however, represents an inconsistent signal. The S&P 500 & VIX is no longer showing a decoupling, while the VIX term structure is. While the stock market is falling out of gear, it's a slow and methodical process. It's possible that stocks will grind through this unless the decoupling fills the correlation box, and the crash percentage climbs to 50% or above. Only 2 out 4 boxes are showing decoupling.
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