Tuesday, January 11, 2022

US #Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

EAC Review
Much of today's economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.

Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) get revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.

Subscriber Comments

The Fed tells us the US economy is strong. The intermediate and long term oscillators (ITCO and LTCO), two measure of marginal economic activity, will be well above 0. ITCO and LTCO are negative and hovering just above 0, respectively. This combination defines an economy transitioning from growth to contraction.

Why is the stock market rallying, then? The $50 Economic & Stock Report discusses it.

Economic Activity Composite (EAC)

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