Sunday, June 12, 2022

#Economic Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Economic Report
Much of today's economic data is unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980s. The public accepts mainstream economic narratives, and assumes that politicians and central bankers control them. Administrations as far back as the 1980s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, tricks to change numbers that get revised by future revisions, help shape public policies.

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The Series 1 $200 Economy & Stock Report 10/20/21, a series of videos, extends this discussion.

The text bait circulating through trading desks this weekend quotes a Goldman Sachs trader,

Goldman Trader: Central Banks Appear Willing To Break Some Things

The hubris of the Fed and its loyal minions constantly entertain us.   Those that believe central banks (The Fed) can micro manage the global economy should read Hoover's Memoirs.

Honestly, we don't care what the minions think. The minions are dangerous. They will panic and sell in the face of pain. Professional investors know when to step aside.

Those interested in learning about the next trigger for a liquidity crunch should watch the Nasdaq 100 and Economy Report updates.

Anyone willing to break something, assuming that can control outcomes, should spend some time away from academia and the Fed model - dot plots. Real trends are approaching critical levels. For example,

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