Much of today's economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.
Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) are revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.
Subscriber Comments
The Economy & Stocks (E&S) Report, a series of videos, provide depth to today's review. The E&S Report should be mandatory for all subscribers. 2023 will be a difficult and volatile year. It leads an important transition to 2024. Investors need to be prepared for 2024. That's when the crying starts.
The majority never gets timing right. They're bearish when they should be bullish, and vice versa. This is how the game has been played since the inception of markets. The book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay describers the long history of how the majority always becomes the bag holder (see book image). Only the minority survives in this game. The Matrix was designed as a tool to help us separate from the majority. Every subscriber will be taught the skills need to separate from the delusions and madness of crowds.
A recession, no matter what the talking heads and experts say, is only a matter of time. This is not a bloody narrative to generate clicks, or sell the idea that gold or Bitcoin are headed to the moon.
