Tuesday, November 22, 2022

US #Economy & #Stocks Review #GDP

E&S Review
Much of today's economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.

Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) are revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.

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The new Economy & Stocks (E&S) Report, a series of videos, extends the discussion.

11/16/22 Report - "Would a Fed Pivot be bullish for stocks?" discusses the chart below, and will challenge the prevailing assumption. The majority is embracing a Fed pivot will be bullish for stocks narrative. A detailed understanding of the historical tendencies since 1913 will alter this perspective. This is necessary to stand away from the majority. The invisible hand will haul you away if you don't. The setup is getting worse, not better.





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