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“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”
― Mark Twain
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US CPI PREP https://t.co/qRyn3vzmrU
— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) April 12, 2023
All you need to know is what the invisible hand is saying. The Fed and Treasury officials speak 24/7 in order to control perceptions. Their comments contradict the invisible hand a lot. This is an important concept to understand. Listen to the Fed, Treasury, or other officials too much, and you'll lose in this game. This game (investing/trading) depends on bag holders. If you cannot parse official statements with computer discipline, the Matrix, Reviews, and Reports, you will become one of them. I have done this too long, and know what's coming to sugarcoat the interpretation for sensitive egos. Please learn to protect yourself now.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which everyone talks to death and overanalyzes is not a reliable measure of price inflation over time. The CPI has been extensively modified. Historical comparisons are no longer productive. CPI data, which extends as far back as 1921, started its alternate trend in the 1980s. The alteration process went into overdrive in 1995, after the Boskin Commission unofficially concluded the public was too clueless to notice creative statistical changes. If inflation was reported as lower, so would social security payouts. Follow the money, people!
Every talking head is going to tell you what to think after today's update, so join the party and start telling yourself everything is ok. Bear in mind, the invisible hand does not care what we do. It tracks the real inflation rate that will never get published. Inflation is either in bull or bear phase. Green boxes denote bull phases (see Inflation Phase). As long as a green box exists, EVERYONE telling us inflation is not a problem is completely full of shit. People will figure this out by the end of the decade, and won't be happy.
Inflation Phases
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