#Wheat Review $WEAT #ZW_F - Capitulation Is Measurable

Wheat Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Wheat's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Capitulation Is Measurable

Algorithms play a role in defining the distribution of positions across futures and options markets. Reportable positions, which Algos reside, are largely offset by commercial positions, rendering the actions position of money managers or speculative funds irrelevant. The real swing factor, typically overlooked, is the nonreportable or retail trader. The retail trader, a relatively small group, plays a critical role in timing changes in the primary trend.

We’ve tried to emphasize the critical construct of energy (DI), an observation consistent across all markets, but it remains nearly an unteachable concept within the majority of Ag.

We listen to the invisible hand. Most in Ag are too busy talking to it, and scolding differing views. Timing is not a game of selling fixed narratives.

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Capitulation is happening this week with speculators throwing in the towel and realizing these markets are nothing but a MM algo that has zero fear. You can’t fundamentally model a market that sells vol everyday.

— Grains Gorilla (@GrainsGorilla) June 24, 2025

Please watch Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Report for continued discussion.

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Ag has been calling for capitulation and a bottom for many months. Until just recently, we have said that the setup was inconsistent with a bottom, and that the invisible hand would punish anyone for not listening.

Energy spikes typically lead to changes not only in the primary, but also composite trends of all assets tracked in the Matrix. The subtle change is the main reason why we updated the Wheat Report today. What is the computer noticing?

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Wheat Review $WEAT #ZW_F - What (WTF) Is Going On?

Wheat Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Wheat's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

What (WTF) Is Going On?

Please watch Corn, Soybeans and Wheat Report for continued discussion.

Use your Wheat Report Code to access the full review.

In 2023, the wheat market was estimated at $195.99 billion and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.28% through 2030, fueled by increasing demand for food processing, organic goods, and livestock feed. Persistent price declines and rising production costs, however, have led many farmers to refer to wheat as “poverty grass.”

What (WTF) is going on?

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Wheat Review $WEAT #ZW_F - The Rules Have Changed

Wheat Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Wheat's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The Corn Report Update, 02/12/25 Report - Insight Group Follow Up - The Rules Have Changed applied to corn, soybeans, wheat, and similar crops.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Wheat Review $WEAT #ZW_F All Trends Breathe

Wheat Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Wheat's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

All Trends Breathe

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Eric,

For the comment "None of these markets are close to bottoming as far as the primary trend is concerned but a rally to sell is not out of the question. Market doesn’t seem to exuberant to downside given all the bearish news."

Corn and soybeans look to be late cycle and wheat mid. Primary trend Brs for corn and weat are .7. Which if it is a deviation from 0 could argue is not too over extended soyb is 1.1 which is more extended. When and how do you reach a point to say that the primary trend is extended?

I saw your comment on looking at c1 and c2 how do those 2 cycle indicators factor in the primary trend?

The price and time cycles for wheat's primary downtrend are 0.9 and 1, respectively. While both cycles are above their statistical norm, they're not extended. Price and time; therefore, could continue without disrupting wheat's historical observations since 1840.

The composite trend, however, constant breathes within fractal cycles. The daily cycle, for example, can knock the composite trend out of alignment, and force a short-term rally. Any daily trend flip immediately triggers profit-taking and reduction of leverage. The duration of the misalignment is typically gauged by the size of the bullish energy build before the daily flip.

Composite Trend Breathing Through Fractal Trends

The primary trend is extended when the computer defines it as PTD1 or PTD2, primary trend decline first or second degree. PTD alters the surf by no longer allow us to recognize future Resets. This keeps us surfing, but slowly reduces the core position.

Long term cycles C1, C2, C3, and C4 represent advanced analysis of composite and primary trend. C1 and C2 readings below -2, for example, typically means it's time to scale back expectations, and walk away over the short- and intermediate-term for all markets tracked in the Matrix. We do not share the long-term cycles due to their complexities. They are included in nearly all report discussion.

The complexity of response is the main reason why video reports exists.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Wheat Review $WEAT #ZW_F

Wheat Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Wheat's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Capitulation is the hallmark of bottoms.

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Capitulation, the discriminant selling into a decline, usually takes place at trend inflections. Trend inflections are more common when the primary trend's price and/or time cycles are extended and a concentrated bullish energy build exists. The energy builds are even more powerful when participation collapses, and spreading activity surges.

Wheat, the leader to the downside in grains, is not showing the classic signs of capitulation. Energy is neutral, participation is high, spreading activity is low, and long-term primary trend cycles are not extended. The computer studies wheat into the early 1800s. Ag would be wise to wait for the classic footprint of bottom, and understand the risks for continuation.

The Wheat Report regularly discusses these points with an overall timing strategy.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.