Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
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Inflation
Inflation rose in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 2.9% annually and 0.4% month-over-month, driven by higher gasoline and food prices. Core inflation remained steady at 3.1% year-over-year. Despite the uptick in prices, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its upcoming meeting, with rising chances of a larger 0.5% cut. This comes amid signs of a weakening labor market, as jobless claims hit a nearly four-year high and revisions showed the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously thought. Markets anticipate a total of 0.75% in rate cuts by year-end.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
Subscriber Comments
Taming Inflation?
Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, giving the Federal Reserve more room to consider an interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures input costs, fell short of expectations, while the core PPI—excluding food and energy also dipped by 0.1%. This easing in inflation, especially in services and trade sectors, led to gains in stock futures and a slight dip in Treasury yields.
Markets now fully expect the Fed to cut rates, possibly by a quarter point, with a 10% chance of a half-point cut. Despite inflation still being above the Fed’s 2% target, softening housing, wage pressures, and a weaker labor market have shifted focus. A recent report showed job growth was nearly 1 million lower than previously estimated, raising concerns. The Fed is set to make its rate decision and provide updated economic projections next week.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
Subscriber Comments
Is The Swamp Draining?
Many in the majority still believe the federal government, often called “the swamp”, is actually shrinking.
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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
Subscriber Comments
Is The Fed Buying Bonds Secretly?
Social media thrives on conspiracy theories far more than the mundane truth—and the real problem is, the majority can’t tell the difference. That's why the consistently lose.
Is the Fed buying bonds amid the interest rate turmoil?
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
Subscriber Comments
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has articulated the administration's rationale behind implementing new tariffs, emphasizing their role in addressing economic challenges and promoting national interests. He describes tariffs as a “means to an end,” aiming to restore the U.S. manufacturing base and enhance economic security.
Bessent argues that tariffs are designed to level the international playing field, countering practices such as wage suppression, currency manipulation, and intellectual property theft by other nations. He asserts that the U.S. will respond to any foreign practices that harm its economy and people, aligning with the “America First Trade Policy.”
Addressing concerns about potential inflation due to tariffs, Bessent downplays such fears, suggesting that any price adjustments would be transitory. He highlights that lower oil prices and reduced interest rates are likely to benefit working Americans, mitigating the impact of falling stock prices.
While acknowledging recent market volatility following the tariff announcements, Bessent remains confident in the administration's long-term economic strategy. He emphasizes a commitment to holding the course, proposing that the tariffs have created “maximum leverage” for the U.S. in international negotiations.
Treasury Secretary Interview With Tucker Carlson
Treasury Secretary Bessent is struggling to understand the invisible hand. Let's discuss.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has shared a family-friendly warning, suggesting that the United States might see bigger federal budget deficits and a slower economy in the years ahead. This gentle heads-up assumes families will remain in their homes, enjoy their vacations, and travel to the EU using Euros without any hiccups. In its latest long-term budget outlook for 2025 to 2055, released in March 2025, the CBO predicts that federal deficits will climb from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055—well above the 3.9% average seen over the last 30 years (1995–2024). This uptick is mostly due to fast-rising interest costs and required spending increases on programs like Social Security and Medicare, all while the population and workforce get smaller. Together, these factors create quite a challenging mix.
The CBO also projects that federal debt held by the public will rise sharply, reaching 156% of GDP by 2055, up from 100% in 2025. This mounting debt is expected to slow economic growth, with real GDP growth forecasted to decline from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.4% by 2055. Factors contributing to this slowdown include an aging population, reduced labor force participation, and weaker population gains, with the CBO noting that without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink by 2033.
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We call this warning family friend, because it leaves out a few things.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
The Federal Reserve announced a further scaling back of its quantitative tightening (QT) program during its March 2025 meeting. The central bank decided to reduce the amount of maturing Treasury proceeds rolling off its balance sheet to $5 billion per month, down from $25 billion. However, the cap for mortgage-backed securities remains unchanged at $35 billion
The Fed last announced a QT taper in May 2024.
Click to Read, May 2024
The stock market reacted positively following the announcement in May 2024, so it stands to reason that a similar announcement in March 2025 will support the stock rally, right?
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
Germany's new spending plan has sent shockwaves through the bond and currency markets. The plan includes a massive €500 billion ($540 billion) special fund for infrastructure over the next decade and a significant boost in defense spending. This move marks a major shift in Germany's fiscal policy, which has traditionally focused on debt reduction.
The plan has sparked a global bond sell-off, with German bond yields rising sharply4. This is because the government will need to issue more bonds to finance the spending, which in turn raises yields to attract more investors4. The plan also includes exempting defense spending from Germany's strict borrowing cap.
Economists believe that this spending boost could significantly accelerate Germany's economic growth, potentially lifting it to 2% next year5. However, there are concerns about the long-term impact on Germany's debt levels, with some predicting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 100% by 2034.
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The headlines aim to persuade the masses that Europe is delivering a powerful message to Trump and Putin, but the invisible hand sees through it.
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
