#Economy & #Stocks Review - Confidence Is Collapsing

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Confidence Is Collapsing

Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in September, falling to 55.4—the lowest level since May and below the forecast of 58.2. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures consumer confidence in the economy, has dropped 21% compared to a year ago. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, the decline was driven by worsening economic views among lower- and middle-income consumers. While buying conditions for durable goods slightly improved, concerns grew over business conditions, labor markets, inflation, and personal finances. Trade policy also remains a major concern, with 60% of respondents mentioning tariffs.

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#Economy & #Stocks Review - Q2 US GDP A Mirage

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Q2 US GDP A Mirage

The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising at an annualized rate of 3.3%, up from an initial 3.0% estimate. Stronger consumer spending and business resilience helped boost growth despite ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Consumer spending rose 1.6%, and a key measure of domestic demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, increased to 1.9%.

Trade figures were heavily influenced by tariffs: imports dropped 29.8% after a stockpiling surge, while exports fell 1.3%, resulting in net exports adding significantly to GDP. Despite a 0.5% contraction in Q1, the economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Looking ahead, slower growth around 1.5% is expected as tariff impacts become more visible. Inflation remained stable, with core PCE up 2.5% and headline PCE at 2%, matching the Fed’s target.

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#Economy & #Stocks Review - The Economy Is Bleeding Me

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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The Economy Is Bleeding Me

The majority loves to talk to the invisible hand, and tell it what it should be doing. Like it or not, the economy is weak, and prices remains stubborn as it weakens. What does this mean for the economy, stock prices, commodities, dollar, and other assets tracked in the Matrix? Please listen to the invisible hand.

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#Commodities & #Energy Review $USO $UGA #OOTT - Knowing When To Take Risks In Farming

C&E Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Commodities overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

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The Commodities & Energy (C&E) Report, a series of videos addressing cycles of price, time, and energy for commodities, oil, and oil related markets, extends the discussion.

“There is nothing to fear but fear itself”, Franklin D. Roosevelt, March 4, 1933.

While a sharp run-up in grain prices on weather concerns have sparked fears of a parabolic rally in foodstuffs and commodities, it cannot dominate our emotions and blind us to the interconnectivity of markets and the invisible hand. A sustainable rally in grains must be accompanied by a surge in commodities, foodstuffs, and leading indicators such as the Australian Dollar and silver. We delve into these elements and offer vital insights to cycles and trends to prevent our emotions from running wild. #commodities #corn #soybeans #wheat #forex #silver

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Knowing When To Take Risks In Farming

Surviving requires knowing when to take risks and when to retreat.

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Honest question

If you’re a younger operation without much equity, how are you surviving this year?

(And let’s be real probably the next 2-3 years)

— Brent Krause (@bl_ag_inc) August 5, 2025

Withdrawing can mean focusing only on the most productive land, using cash instead of taking on debt, scaling back capital investments, and cutting expenses when farm profitability drops significantly.

Farming profitability in the grain market follows the O/I oscillator.

O/I Oscillator

The Know When To Hold 'em or Fold 'em (Free Commodities & Energy Report) on Insights cover how the Commodities & Energy Report tracks profitability in farming.



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#Economy & #Stocks Review - Headline Job Numbers: Misleading and Frequently Revised

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Headline Job Numbers: Misleading and Frequently Revised

President Donald Trump fired a top Labor Department official, Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of manipulating weak July job data, which reported only 73,000 new jobs and downward revisions for May and June. The move raised concerns about the politicization of federal economic statistics and further shook already volatile markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%. Critics warned that undermining trust in economic data could have long-term consequences.

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The 08/01/25 Report — Labor Report Is Horrific update discusses how only the naive trust the labor report.

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#Economy & #Stocks Review - The Fed Is Trapped

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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The Fed Is Trapped

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Powell warned that tariff-driven inflation is expected to rise over summer, noting “someone has to pay for the tariffs,” and suggesting that consumers will face higher prices as duties pass through the supply chain.

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#Economy & #Stocks Review - Where Is Money Going In June?

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Where Is Money Going In June?

Forget about the reasons driving trends. Follow the money.

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Intermarket trends indicate that the market remains relatively defensive. Currently, the only sectors showing a positive LTCO, meaning they are outperforming the S&P 500, are gold stocks, gold, Nasdaq 100, silver, Bitcoin, and banks.

Intermarket LTCO

The +/- sort, a task easily handled by the computer, highlights the hottest short-term sectors. Leading the pack is the Nasdaq 100 at 62%, far outpacing the next closest—Treasury Bills at just 10%. It's clear that big tech names are attracting the most capital in June.

Intermarket +/-

Understanding intermarket trends, where capital is flowing, supports the stock market and risk-on strategy discussed 06/10/25 Report - Playing Risk-On With One Foot Out The Door, and 06/10/25 Report - Surfing With One Foot Out the Door of the E&S and Bitcoin Report updates.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Invisible Hand Will Do What DOGE Cannot

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Invisible Hand Will Do What DOGE Cannot

Months ago we warned that DOGE would be an excerise in futility.

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*MUSK SAYS HIS SCHEDULED TIME AS A SPECIAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE IS COMING TO AN END pic.twitter.com/efO1nqyQC1

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) May 29, 2025

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Ego Blinds You

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

Subscriber Comments

Ego Blinds You

Most people initially reject the Matrix primarily because it challenges their ego. They prefer to believe that markets are manipulated by politicians, the Federal Reserve, or shadowy groups like the Rothschilds. It's more comforting to accept these narratives than to grapple with the concept of the invisible hand. Yet, it's the invisible hand that truly shapes outcomes in markets. Only the minority understands how to follow its lead. We'll teach you how.

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#Economy & #Stocks Review - Patience

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Patience

Focus on the Twin Peaks discussion in the 05/04/25 Report - Dancing For Nickels Rather Than Surfing In Stocks update. The majority dances for nickels, while the pros surf and adapt to changing conditions.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Delusions of Political Control

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

Subscriber Comments

Delusions of Political Control

In April 2025, the U.S. government reported a $258 billion budget surplus, a 23% increase from the previous year. This surge was driven by strong tax receipts and a record $16 billion in customs duties, largely due to heightened tariffs on Chinese and other imported goods. Individual non-withheld tax payments rose by 16% to $460 billion, while refunds also increased by 16% to $86 billion, contributing to total net receipts of $850 billion in April.

Despite the April surplus, the year-to-date budget deficit for fiscal 2025 reached $1.049 trillion, a 23% increase from the prior year, due to record spending. Outlays totaled $4.159 trillion, with significant increases in expenditures for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and interest on federal debt.

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Many remain firmly believe that Trump is strategically using tariffs, often described as playing "3-D chess" while using the Art of the Deal, and exerting significant influence over economic cycles. Our observation is that people tend see events through the lens of their beliefs, and no amount of data or warning from our models will change that.

With that in mind, we advise the minority to stay cautious, objective, and prepared. Trump, contrary to popular opinion, is not in control.

The economic cycle as defined by the Economic Activity Composite (EAC) has been down for nearly a year. The EAC, our measure of marginal economic activity, is deteriorating rapidly.

Economic Activity Composite

It's common practice for Trump and every sitting Adminstration to claim credit for economic forces beyond their control. In truth, it’s the invisible hand, the collective global consciousness, that’s playing 3-D chess. By comparison, Trump is playing checkers. Unfortunately, many will come to understand this the hard way.

Despite popular belief, the stock market rally may be at risk in the near future. We'll dive deeper into this with our subscribers, especially as the timing becomes a focus while most people debate who's really playing 3-D chess.

To navigate the real world—not the world shaped by perception management, subscribe to our Economy & Stock, US Bond, US Dollar, Bitcoin, and other Reports. Profits come from surfing waves of reality, not perceptions.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Oil's Decline Trumps Fault

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Oil's Decline Trumps Fault

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported that President Trump's recent trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs, have significantly contributed to the decline in oil prices.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Trading The Geometric Coils

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Trading The Geometric Coils

Evolution of the Trade - Click to Read

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While most remain distracted by political, geopolitical, and chattering teeth nonsense, a small group of Insight subscribers known as the minority is closely following the Evolution of the Trade, the real driver of trends (click EOT above for further discussion). Join the Economy & Stock Report to understand the invisible hand and real economic and stock market trends. Trends based on direction, concentration, and energy. Energy, the force that changes trends, and creates ebb and flow, clearly told us that the "stocks are going to crash like its 1987" were selling a false narrative. We transitioned from 03/06/25 Report - Stock Discussion: Cash Is King to 04/19/25 Report - Cash Was King before bears had time to hide under a rock for being wrong.

I think the difference between now and 1987 is that the circuit breakers could slow things down. Will write about this in my CNBC investing club Sunday think piece

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) April 5, 2025

The invisible hand moves regardless of what we believe. The majority, 95% of the trading world, sees what it believes. We'll teach you how to see without beliefs.

Set aside the bias—let’s focus on geometric coils, volume, and reversals for the S&P 500. Most traders will misread the signals, and we’ll be ready to fade the majority once again.

Trading the Geometric Coils Review


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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Majority vs. Minority, It's Everywhere

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Majority vs. Minority, It's Everywhere

Shedeur Sanders, standout Colorado quarterback and son of NFL Hall of Famer Deion Sanders, endured a shocking and dramatic fall in the 2025 NFL Draft. Once projected as a potential top-five pick, Sanders remained undrafted through the first three rounds, igniting widespread debate and controversy.

The real-time drama of the NFL Draft mirrors the hype and volatility we typically see in stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities, and other markets discussed at Insights. Anyone aiming to make better financial decisions would be smart to pay attention to what’s unfolding. The tension between majority and minority mindsets isn’t just a market phenomenon — it’s playing out here, too. The common observation between the two is conspiracy theories.

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Released early for weekend entertainment. Open Review

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#Economy & #Stocks Review - US Consumer Is Feeling The Pain of Stagflation

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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US Consumer Is Feeling The Pain of Stagflation

The mighty US consumer is "in good shape" even in the face of economic uncertainty amid President Donald Trump's policy shifts, the boss of a credit card giant said on Tuesday.

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The invisible hand doesn't agree.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.