#Economy & #Stocks Review - Headline Job Numbers: Misleading and Frequently Revised

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Headline Job Numbers: Misleading and Frequently Revised

President Donald Trump fired a top Labor Department official, Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of manipulating weak July job data, which reported only 73,000 new jobs and downward revisions for May and June. The move raised concerns about the politicization of federal economic statistics and further shook already volatile markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%. Critics warned that undermining trust in economic data could have long-term consequences.

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The 08/01/25 Report — Labor Report Is Horrific update discusses how only the naive trust the labor report.

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