#Economy & #Stocks Review - Confidence Is Collapsing

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Confidence Is Collapsing

Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in September, falling to 55.4—the lowest level since May and below the forecast of 58.2. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures consumer confidence in the economy, has dropped 21% compared to a year ago. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, the decline was driven by worsening economic views among lower- and middle-income consumers. While buying conditions for durable goods slightly improved, concerns grew over business conditions, labor markets, inflation, and personal finances. Trade policy also remains a major concern, with 60% of respondents mentioning tariffs.

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