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| Wheat Review |
Wheat's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.
Subscriber Comments
Capitulation Is Measurable
Algorithms play a role in defining the distribution of positions across futures and options markets. Reportable positions, which Algos reside, are largely offset by commercial positions, rendering the actions position of money managers or speculative funds irrelevant. The real swing factor, typically overlooked, is the nonreportable or retail trader. The retail trader, a relatively small group, plays a critical role in timing changes in the primary trend.
We’ve tried to emphasize the critical construct of energy (DI), an observation consistent across all markets, but it remains nearly an unteachable concept within the majority of Ag.
We listen to the invisible hand. Most in Ag are too busy talking to it, and scolding differing views. Timing is not a game of selling fixed narratives.
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Capitulation is happening this week with speculators throwing in the towel and realizing these markets are nothing but a MM algo that has zero fear. You can’t fundamentally model a market that sells vol everyday.
— Grains Gorilla (@GrainsGorilla) June 24, 2025
Please watch Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Report for continued discussion.
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Ag has been calling for capitulation and a bottom for many months. Until just recently, we have said that the setup was inconsistent with a bottom, and that the invisible hand would punish anyone for not listening.
Energy spikes typically lead to changes not only in the primary, but also composite trends of all assets tracked in the Matrix. The subtle change is the main reason why we updated the Wheat Report today. What is the computer noticing?
Follow me on 𝕏 or Facebook for further discussion.
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