Monday, March 25, 2024

#Economy & #Stocks Review Loan Delinquency Rates Rising Fast

E&S Review
Much of today's economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.

Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) are revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.

Subscriber Comments

The Economy & Stocks (E&S) Report, a series of videos, provide depth to today's review. The E&S Report should be mandatory for all subscribers.  2023 will be a difficult and volatile year. It leads an important transition to 2024. Investors need to be prepared for 2024.

The majority never gets timing right.  They're bearish when they should be bullish, and vice versa.  They also have a long history of becoming bag holders.

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” - Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

Mackay reminds us that the majority, the collective conscious of all investors, to be swayed by the emotions and behaviors of the crowd. The majority, a group that struggles with timing, find themselves being bearish when they should have been bullish, and vice versa. This traps them as bag holders when trends against the majority's expectations. The stock market often defies expectations, rising when everyone expects a recession, and vice versa. This is why we follow the invisible hand rather than opinions.

Loan Delinquency Rates Rising Fast

Loan delinquency rates from credit card to autos are rising sharply.

Credit Card Delinquency Rates All Commercial Banks (Click to View)

Credit Card Delinquency Rates Not Among the Top 100 (Click to View)

Subprime Auto Rates Delinquency

The lower and middle classes are slowly being reduced to economic slaves or worse by the destruction of the US (dollar) empire. The majority, in general, is unreachable. Many believe the American Dream cannot be destroyed.  The belief allows them to deny trends, cycles, and common sense until the pain becomes unbearable.

An economic transition is coming, and bulk of Americans are not ready for it. We've discussed the transition in terms of the Economic Activity Composite inside the Economy & Stocks Report, and will be fine-tuning the timing in the US Bond Report. The invisible hand speaks to us through markets. The yield curve, a relationship that the majority is probably ignoring now, warns of distortion. It's only a matter of timing now.

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Talking heads often suggests the Fed is too loose. Ha! The invisible hand warns us that they're too tight. The Fed is nearly as tight as it ahead of the Great Recession that scarred Americans and solved nothing. The Fed is repeating the same mistakes of the past, but this time loan delinquency rates are rising and worse for the lower and middle classes.

Yield Curve 2000-Present

01/11/24 Report - 2024 Destroys What's Left of Normal was ended to open your eyes to coming changes (Economy & Stock Report). The majority sees what it believes. We're all fools following fools without proper education. The majority typically learns through the 2x4 of knowledge. We use the Matrix to follow the invisible hand, and create separation from the majority.

Loan delinquency rates from credit card to autos are rising sharply. This is a fact. No amount of gaslighting, a popular word from our culture of division, changes it. Delinquency rates typically rise after the cycle transition. It's different this time. They're rising before it.

Markets, rising on sea liquidity, will be vulnerable when the music stops. The yield curve is the music. You should be listening to it.

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