#Economy & #Stocks Review - GDP quoted at 3.8% And Big Foot Is Real

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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GDP quoted at 3.8% and Big Foot Is Real

The U.S. economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter of 2025, with the Commerce Department revising GDP upward to an annualized rate of 3.8%, up from earlier estimates of 3.3% and 3.0%. The upgrade was largely due to more robust consumer spending data, with personal consumption increasing at a 2.5% rate—well above the previously reported 1.6%.

Analysts noted the size of the revision as unusual, reflecting the economic volatility and policy uncertainty that have marked much of 2025. Despite the data noise, the core drivers of Q2 growth remained clear: resilient consumer spending and a drop in imports helped fuel the rebound, following a weak first quarter impacted by tariff-related inventory buildups.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects that the momentum likely continued into the third quarter, with a current GDP growth estimate of 3.3%, signaling ongoing strength in the U.S. economy.

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