Wednesday, October 8, 2025

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Tariffs Kicking In, So Is Fear

E&S Review
Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Tariffs Kicking In, So Is Fear

Economists are raising concerns about global trade following recent U.S. tariff threats by Donald Trump, drawing comparisons to the trade collapse during the Great Depression. The Kindleberger spiral, a chart tracing the sharp decline in world trade between 1929 and 1933, is being referenced as a warning, not a prediction.

While Trump temporarily paused tariffs on Mexico and Canada, his administration still went ahead with tariffs on China, prompting retaliation. On April 2, 2025, new tariffs on Canadian imports were announced, officially justified as a border security measure, though critics question both the reasoning and consistency of such policies.

These unpredictable moves create uncertainty for global markets. Rather than focusing on the economic impact of the tariffs, this discussion highlights two key issues: the historical warning from the Kindleberger spiral and the debate over who actually bears the cost of tariffs.

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