#Economy & #Stocks Review - Economic Activity Composite Is Weakening Without Labor Update

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Economic Activity Composite Is Weakening Without Labor Update

According to Goldman Sachs' job tracker, the U.S. economy shed roughly 50,000 jobs in October, marking the poorest performance since 2020. This tool, which aggregates insights from hiring surveys, unemployment figures, and live market indicators, reveals a sharp deceleration from September's 85,000-job gain—and factors in an extra 100,000 losses tied to the Trump administration's deferred resignation initiative. As the government shutdown postpones official payroll data, Goldman's estimates provide one of the most reliable snapshots available, painting a labor market far more fragile than mainstream reports suggest.

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