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“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”
― Mark Twain
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Higher Education Bubble
Colleges, especially private ones, are projected to start closing at one per week going forward.
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The United States built a massive education system during the Baby Boom and the decades that followed, when the number of students was growing rapidly. College enrollment increased from about 2.3 million in the 1950s to 13 million by the 1980s, leading schools and colleges to expand their facilities and capacity in anticipation of continued population growth.
That demographic trend has now reversed. Birth rates declined significantly after the 2008 recession and did not return to their previous levels. These smaller generations have already moved through K–12 education and are now reaching college age, creating a smaller pool of potential students.
The challenge is that the education system has not contracted at the same pace as enrollment. Schools and colleges still have buildings, maintenance costs, utilities, debt, administrators, and faculty to support, while much of their revenue depends on student enrollment. As a result, under-enrolled institutions are increasingly being forced to consolidate, cut programs, merge, or close.
Although estimates such as one college closing per week are attention grabbing projections, they reflect a broader demographic problem that the United States now has more educational capacity competing for a structurally smaller number of students.
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