Grain's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.
Love your videos they really help me understand the process.
Here is some fundamental intel.
The USDA report for quarterly stocks was neutral for corn and soybeans versus expectations but the planted acre expectations for 2021/22 was extremely bullish versus market expectations.
Cash market signals (higher basis levels and inverted spreads) continue to intensify telling us we are running out of grain.
The smaller than expected acres for next year magnify the tightening balance sheets setting us up for record volatility this summer if there is any kind of production problem due to weather.
The job of the market is now two-fold
(1) to “buy more acres”, since most planting decisions have already been made this will be no easy task (2) reduce demand which will be equally difficult with a global economy that is close to fully reopening and food demand that is always on the rise with global population growth
US weather will be the focus and June/July/August tend to be the most volatile time for grain prices…this year could be one for the history books.
This source as well other reliable ones, know their stuff. We welcome their input. I will say they're in the Ag business and extremely knowledgeable about the fundamentals. I have no doubt others offer similar or slightly different insights. Please step forward if you have something to contribute.
Anyone reading or watching my stuff knows studying the invisible hand is my expertise. It's precise, probability-based, and 100% repeatable across all markets. The discipline, however, is not easy. Though, I would add NOHTING worthwhile is. Confirming the Evolution of the Trade (EOT) with real world observations, descriptions, and interpretations is extremely valuable for all of us.
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