Thursday, November 17, 2022

#RetailStocks Review $XRT

Retail Stocks Review
Trading noise, the random movement of price over the short term, does not control trends, cycles, and profits. The majority, an emotionally driven group focused solely on price, often interprets it as meaningful information. This leads to confusion, frustration, missed opportunities, and leaves the majority as the bag holders of trend transitions. The Evolution of the Trade helps investors stand separate from the majority.

US stocks' overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The new Economy & Stocks (E&S) Report expands this discussion.

Retailers rely on the holiday sales to turn profitable. Most retailers return to  "black" on the Friday after Thanksgiving.  This explains why it's called Black Friday. Holiday sales are so important to the US economy, the season has morphed into a spiritual spending experience. Nearly 70% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or national income comes from Private Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Consumption as % of GDP has risen from 59% in 1966 to 69% in 2008 (see PCE as % of GDP).

Massive layoffs announced by Amazon, Alibaba, FedEx and more warns that the all important retail backdrop, the driver of nearly 50% of PCE is bad, and will likely not improve in 2023. Bullish narratives, regardless of the source, are dangerously incompetent. Please learn to track them in the Matrix through the E&S Report. Disinformation creates bag holders.

PCE as % of GDP

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